This article examines the potential benefits of Schengen visa liberalization for Armenia while also discussing the risks it may pose. To build a comprehensive analysis, it uses the visa liberalization experiences of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova as comparative examples. Through this comparative lens, the article attempts to assess whether Schengen visa liberalization will deliver positive outcomes and lay a solid foundation for Armenia’s accession to the European Union.

This article draws attention to the newly initiated EU-Armenia Schengen visa liberalization dialogue and further EU integration, elucidating the advantages while simultaneously discussing the experiences of other Eastern Partnership countries—Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

Last year, on September 9, 2024, the European Commission and the Republic of Armenia commenced the Schengen visa liberalization dialogue. The benchmarks for granting a visa-free regime for Armenia are yet to be developed in a “Visa Liberalisation Action Plan.” Among Eastern Partnership countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan have not achieved a visa-free regime for travel to the EU, though both have visa facilitation agreements. For Armenia to become the third state to secure visa-exempt status within the Schengen Zone, it must meet all requirements set by the European Commission, including amendments in customs, border management, and travelers’ basic rights.

Overview of the Visa Liberalisation Processes of the Eastern Partnership Countries

Georgian Case:

After Georgia’s bold pursuit of NATO membership and eager collaboration with the EU, US, and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, expressing its desire to align with the West, Russia was not very “happy,” to say the least. Georgia’s attempt to leave Russia’s orbit was met with hostility, culminating in Russia’s invasion of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008. After the EU-Georgia Association Agreement entered into force, the EU Council ratified visa liberalization for Georgia in 2017.

According to a European Commission report citing Eurostat data, there was a notable increase in Georgian citizens illegally residing in Schengen states and a surge in asylum requests: nearly 10,000 of 180,000 travelers failed to return. The Georgian Parliament’s passage of the controversial “foreign agent” law, widely seen as “Russian-style” and “anti-EU,” sparked predictable consequences, threatening EU relations. Former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, asserted in an official statement that Georgia’s actions deteriorated its path to EU integration. Under the EU-Georgia agreement, Georgian citizens can travel to the Schengen Zone without time-consuming and costly visa applications.

Ukrainian Case:

For Ukraine, the visa liberalization process was no easy feat: the country had to exert tremendous efforts over five years to meet the benchmarks outlined in its Action Plan. The dialogue began in 2008, but visa-free travel was only implemented in 2017, spurred by the pro-European Maidan Revolution. Regarding EU accession, after Russia’s invasion in 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared that Ukrainians “…are one of us and we want them in.” Yet, the process has not gained the expected momentum: some EU leaders view accession as unsafe and unrealistic, citing border security concerns.

Moldovan Case:

Moldova’s visa liberalization brought a range of benefits and, contrary to predictions, did not lead to increased migration. This is partly due to the financial constraints of Moldovan citizens, who have cited insufficient means to travel to Schengen states, and the availability of Romanian passports, which facilitate legal movement within the Schengen Zone.

Visa Liberalisation Process for Armenia and Further Integration to the EU

Under Russian pressure in 2013, Armenia backed out of signing an Association Agreement with the EU and instead joined the Eurasian Economic Union at Russia’s behest. Despite this setback, Armenia signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU in 2017, launching the visa liberalization dialogue. Russia’s efforts to maintain its grip on the South Caucasus notwithstanding, Armenia views Moscow’s actions as unfriendly and incompatible with its interests. To this end, Armenia desperately needs the EU’s constant support and partnership for its governance and institutional reform agenda.

Though the process will take years, it’s worth noting that the visa liberalization dialogue’s initiation is a triumph for boosting EU-Armenia relations, paving the way for the following outcomes:

The commencement of the Schengen visa liberalization dialogue is a landmark for EU integration, potentially leading to candidacy status.

Visa-free travel will enable Armenian nationals to move freely to Schengen member states without time-consuming and costly embassy/consulate applications.

Successful implementation will foster intercommunication between EU and Armenian citizens.

It will open doors to studying the cultural and educational best practices of EU countries, paving the way for aligning with EU values and standards vital for Armenia’s development and reform agenda.

It’s worth mentioning that, although the visa-free regime allows 90-day stays within a 180-day period, travelers must justify their intentions in Schengen states. Based on the experiences of the aforementioned Eastern Partnership countries, an outflow of population—particularly talent—from Armenia to EU countries can be foreseen after the process concludes successfully.

Hovsep Khurshudyan, Chairman of the “Free Citizen” NGO, underscored three major areas requiring amendments for Armenia to achieve Schengen visa liberalization:

Technical Perspective: The transition to biometric passports, already outsourced to a foreign company, is underway but time-consuming.

Political Perspective: Proper border management is crucial, with Russian influence gradually limited as Meghri and Zvartnots are now under Armenian supervision. Checkpoints at the Turkish and Iranian borders should also be under Armenian control, with the EU Border Monitoring Mission’s presence favored in these areas.

Legal Perspective: Armenia lacks a legal document explicitly protecting LGBT rights. A draft anti-discrimination law submitted by the Ministry of Justice failed to include provisions for LGBT rights, slowing progress toward meeting EU benchmarks.

Khurshudyan expressed optimism about Armenia’s visa liberalization prospects and the potential for an “upgraded” CEPA to serve as a basis for EU membership status. However, Teun Janssen, an EU affairs expert at the EU Parliament, cautioned that EU candidacy for Armenia is currently very unlikely. He noted that the EU “overstretched” when it offered candidacy to Georgia, a more consolidated and longer-term candidate on paper. Due to the backsliding of the Georgian Dream government, appetite for enlargement in the Caucasus has waned, affecting Armenia’s prospects.

Janssen referenced Ukraine and Moldova, stating that neither is foreseen to gain membership soon. He highlighted historical contingencies that shift perceptions of “Europe’s map”—in the 1950s, it covered a small chunk of northwestern Europe; in the 1990s, it expanded to Central Europe; and now, for some, it includes Armenia and even Canada, proving an expansion trend.

Janssen asserted that Armenia could secure EU membership in the late 2020s or early 2030s by maintaining political and diplomatic ties with neighbors while resisting Russian control and aggression, including foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), with EU support. He added that the accession of Moldova, Ukraine, and most Western Balkan states, alongside EU treaty amendments to expand budget, governance, and rule of law capacities, would open doors for Armenia. An enlarged, empowered European house could accommodate further integration in the South Caucasus.

Janssen is confident that Armenia can join the European family after undergoing political, economic, and societal transformations. He cited Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution as a precedent, suggesting that a non-violent revolution in Armenia could lay the groundwork for smooth EU integration.

Last but not least, considering the examples of other Eastern Partnership countries that were once in Russia’s orbit but gradually stepped back and moved toward EU integration, Armenia has the capacity to meet the European Commission’s requirements and align with its standards. This will pave the way for closer ties with the European Union, encompassing a visa-free regime and deeper integration.

About the Author: Emma Ghalumyan has over three years of experience working on EU-funded projects and in consular affairs. She has held roles at the Central Project Management Agency and the Embassy of the Hellenic Republic to Armenia, contributing to consular affairs and project implementation. Emma holds an LL.M. in International and European Law with a specialization in EU Law.