The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has highlighted deteriorating Russo-Armenian relations as a regional concern in its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment.

According to the report, Armenia’s growing estrangement from Russia—particularly threats to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—has escalated bilateral tensions. The DIA states: “Russia used information operations to denigrate Armenian democracy and its more pro-Western leadership,” framing Yerevan’s shift toward the West as a geopolitical fault line.

The assessment places Armenia’s Western alignment within a broader pattern of Russian regional influence operations. It also warns that in Georgia, “Russia almost certainly aims to return Georgia to its sphere of influence,” noting that since the October parliamentary elections, the Georgian Dream-led government has fostered conditions favorable to Russian sway.

Armenia’s deepening ties with the EU and the United States, coupled with Russian disinformation campaigns, position it as a flashpoint in a renewed East-West rivalry, according to the DIA.