On March 10, Arvind Ramakrishnan, the EMEA Sovereign Ratings Director at Fitch Ratings, stated that the agency has not observed any signals suggesting that Azerbaijan is preparing to move to a floating exchange rate regime. "There is a strong official commitment to maintaining the national currency's peg to the US dollar, and we expect this exchange rate to remain unchanged," Ramakrishnan stated. He also noted that Fitch has kept its real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.4% for both 2026 and 2027, which corresponds to the country’s estimated medium-term economic growth potential.

According to Fitch’s projections, average annual inflation is expected to reach 4.6% in 2026 before declining to 4% in 2027. Ramakrishnan emphasized that fiscal policy during 2026–2027 is expected to remain moderately expansionary, largely due to government spending in Azerbaijan’s liberated territories and other capital investment projects. At the same time, he noted that a partial underspending of the defense budget cannot be ruled out, pointing to a potential "peace dividend" resulting from the normalization of relations with Armenia. He added that the current structure of planned investments is unlikely to significantly increase domestic inflationary pressure.

During the same discussion, Maksim Maliutin, the Associate Director for EMEA Bank Ratings at Fitch Ratings, addressed the potential launch of a digital currency by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan. He stated that the regulator would most likely adopt a two-tier model for a central bank digital currency (CBDC). "Under this scheme, the issuance of the central bank digital currency will remain with the regulator, while distribution functions and direct service to end-users will be delegated to commercial banks," Maliutin stated.

He emphasized that commercial banks would likely need to invest in IT integration, stronger cybersecurity systems, and adjustments to operational processes to connect to the Central Bank’s platform, as well as to comply with updated regulatory and settlement requirements. Maliutin warned that one of the main risks for the banking sector could be the partial replacement of bank deposits if clients shift some of their funds into CBDC. "This could weaken sustainable funding and liquidity reserves of credit institutions and increase their dependence on more costly sources of financing," he emphasized.

Maliutin noted that the scale of this risk will depend largely on the design of the digital currency, including whether interest is paid on balances, what ownership or conversion limits are introduced, and how easily transfers between bank deposits and digital currency can be carried out, particularly during periods of financial instability. At the same time, he stated that CBDC could improve the efficiency of payment systems, speed up settlements, and enhance transaction transparency, while reducing the costs associated with cash handling and enabling the development of new digital financial products. However, he added that the benefits for banks are likely to emerge gradually and may initially be offset by required capital investments.