Fitch Ratings stated on August 19 that the peace framework agreement between Armenia (BB-/Stable) and Azerbaijan (BBB-/Stable) is a positive move toward a comprehensive deal, reducing the risk of renewed hostilities, though significant obstacles remain. The agency clarified that the agreement is unlikely to have an immediate impact on either country's credit rating but could support positive medium-term trends, particularly through increased trade that could stimulate growth.

The US-brokered declaration, signed in Washington on August 8, provides for mutual recognition of Soviet-era borders, the renunciation of force, and "unimpeded communication" for Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia. It also ends the involvement of third-party OSCE observers, fulfilling a long-standing demand from Azerbaijan. However, Fitch emphasized that the declaration is a preliminary framework without a binding treaty or a timeline for the corridor's construction.

Fitch understands that Armenia is unlikely to cede sovereignty over the Trump International Peace and Prosperity Pipeline (TRIPP), which will be built and operated by US companies. Furthermore, another key Azerbaijani demand—the removal of references to Karabakh from Armenia's constitution via a referendum—is politically sensitive and unlikely to occur before the mid-2026 parliamentary elections.

According to Fitch, a durable peace could strengthen Armenia’s economy by reducing geopolitical risks, lowering foreign exchange volatility, and easing fiscal pressures from defense spending in the medium term. The landlocked country could also benefit from faster access to European markets, especially through Turkey. For Azerbaijan, the potential gains are smaller, as the country already has strong fiscal and external balance sheets. However, reduced tensions could allow the government to focus on domestic reforms, including economic diversification and governance improvements.