On October 21, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan's foreign exchange reserves will reach $11.9 billion by the end of 2025. According to the IMF, these reserves are expected to decline to $11.7 billion in 2026 and further to $9.6 billion by 2030. The Fund also projected Azerbaijan’s non-oil GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2025, with growth slowing to 3.7% in 2026 and 3.5% by 2030. Overall economic growth in Azerbaijan is expected to decelerate to 3% in 2025, down from 4.1% in 2024.

Regarding public finances, the IMF forecasted that Azerbaijan’s total gross public debt will account for 22.4% of GDP in 2025, lower than the previously projected 27.6%, rising to 23.5% in 2026 and 24.9% by 2030. In 2024, total gross public debt is expected at 21.76% of GDP. Total gross external debt is projected at 7.6% of GDP in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7.1% by 2030. The IMF noted that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could facilitate greater regional cooperation and integration.

Fiscal policy in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) region is expected to remain expansionary in 2025, but shift to a contractionary stance from 2026, supported by reduced capital expenditures in Azerbaijan and fiscal reforms in Kazakhstan aimed at increasing non-oil revenues. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to maintain expansionary fiscal policies due to rising capital expenditures. The IMF also indicated that medium-term economic growth in the CCA region could exceed current projections if the positive impacts of recent events—particularly the post-Ukraine conflict developments and long-term infrastructure investments—prove more persistent. Growth in the region is forecasted at 5.6% in 2025, 4.7% in 2026, and 4% in 2030. Oil-exporting countries are expected to grow at 4.9% in 2025, 4% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2030, while oil-importing countries may grow at 6.8% in 2025, 5.7% in 2026, and 5.4% in 2030. The IMF projected Azerbaijan’s exports of goods and services at $28.4 billion in 2025, down 13.15% compared to the May forecast, and $27.1 billion in 2026. By 2030, exports are expected to total $25.7 billion. Imports of goods and services are projected at $23.4 billion in 2025, $24.4 billion in 2026, and $28.5 billion by 2030. The IMF expects Azerbaijan to maintain a foreign trade surplus until 2027.