Representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have outlined the potential economic consequences of suspending the application of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) treaty to Armenia, as Yerevan pursues closer ties with the European Union. The proposes that the suspension could remain in place until Armenia holds a referendum on whether to continue participating in the EAEU or pursue EU membership.

The document projects substantial economic losses for Armenia under this scenario. Its authors estimate that gross domestic product could decline by 15.6%, inflation could rise by 14.9 percentage points, and domestic consumption could fall by 14.6%. Trade turnover between Armenia and EAEU member states could decrease by 55.6%, from approximately $7.99 billion in 2025 to $3.55 billion. Armenian exports to the bloc could fall by 65.8%, while imports could decline by 48.8%.

The report also estimates that the price of natural gas supplied to Armenia could rise from $177.50 to $300 per 1,000 cubic metres, increasing the annual import bill from $389 million to $657.5 million if supply volumes remain unchanged. Other potential consequences include the reinstatement of customs duties and sanitary controls, higher railway freight tariffs, stricter conditions for Armenian citizens working in other EAEU countries, and reduced access to preferential trade arrangements.

The four countries argue that Armenia’s steps towards EU membership conflict with its existing obligations under the EAEU Treaty, particularly those concerning the bloc’s common customs territory and regulatory framework. However, the treaty does not explicitly provide a mechanism for suspending its application to an individual member state. The report invokes the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties as a possible legal basis for a joint suspension decision.

The document was sent to the Eurasian Economic Commission on 20 October for formal transmission to the leaders of EAEU member states. The initiative follows a joint statement issued by the four countries’ presidents on 29 May, which raised concerns over Armenia’s European integration and supported holding a referendum on its future alignment.